埃斯顿（002747）：2025年第二季度业绩疲软；中国第一大机器人制造商；欧洲业务取得进展；利润仍滞后

Estun: Soft2Q25; No.1robot maker in China; Progress in Europe; Profit still lagging

埃斯顿于8月28日（周五）晚间公布了2025年第二季度业绩，并于9月1日（周一）上午召开了分析师电话会议。此前，该公司已于7月14日晚间发布了业绩预告。
　　我们认为2025年第二季度业绩表现疲软，因为经常性净利润再度转为负值，且低于盈利预警区间的下限。对于2025年全年，管理层更新了业绩指引，目前预计销售额将达到52亿元人民币（更高），但净利润将降至6000万元人民币（更低）。管理层对中国市场2025年下半年的增长势头表示乐观。除了巩固中国机器人市场的龙头地位外，埃斯顿在开拓欧洲汽车客户方面取得了良好进展，并计划2026年在欧洲实现1亿元人民币的机器人销售额——这一规模虽小，但令人鼓舞。尽管业绩表现疲软，埃斯顿的股价表现坚韧，年初至今涨幅超过20%，跑赢沪深300指数。我们认为这是因为埃斯顿被纳入了中国多只机器人主题ETF，且投资者对其人形机器人投资持乐观态度。尽管如此，埃斯顿的盈利表现仍缺乏坚实支撑——其2025年目标净利润6000万元人民币与2015-2016年的平均净利润水平相当。因此，我们认为其估值过高。重申“卖出”评级。我们下调了盈利预测，但将目标价维持在15.5元人民币不变。

Estun announced 2Q25 results in the evening of Friday 28 August, and hosted an analyst call in the morning of Monday 1 September. This followed the preliminary result released on the evening of 14 July.
    We consider the 2Q25 results soft as the recurring net profit returned to negative and missed the lower-end of the profit alert range. For 2025, management has updated the guidance and now expects higher sales of RMB5.2bn but lower net profit of RMB60mn for the full year. Management commented positively on the growth momentum in 2H25 in China. In addition to achieving the no.1 position in the robot market in China, Estun is making good progress in tapping into European automotive customers and aims for RMB100mn sales from robots in Europe in 2026 — small but encouraging. Estun's share price has been resilient and was up by over 20% YTD, outperforming the CSI300 index, despite the soft results. We think this is because Estun is in many robot-themed ETFs in China and investors are optimistic about its humanoid robot investment. That said, Estun still lacks solid profit delivery underlyingly — its 2025 target net profit of RMB60mn is the same as the average net profit it achieved in 2015-16. We therefore consider the valuation as very full. Reiterate our Sell recommendation. We cut our estimates but keep target price unchanged at RMB15.5.

<div><p>埃斯顿于8月28日（周五）晚间公布了2025年第二季度业绩，并于9月1日（周一）上午召开了分析师电话会议。此前，该公司已于7月14日晚间发布了业绩预告。</p>
<p>　　我们认为2025年第二季度业绩表现疲软，因为经常性净利润再度转为负值，且低于盈利预警区间的下限。对于2025年全年，管理层更新了业绩指引，目前预计销售额将达到52亿元人民币（更高），但净利润将降至6000万元人民币（更低）。管理层对中国市场2025年下半年的增长势头表示乐观。除了巩固中国机器人市场的龙头地位外，埃斯顿在开拓欧洲汽车客户方面取得了良好进展，并计划2026年在欧洲实现1亿元人民币的机器人销售额——这一规模虽小，但令人鼓舞。尽管业绩表现疲软，埃斯顿的股价表现坚韧，年初至今涨幅超过20%，跑赢沪深300指数。我们认为这是因为埃斯顿被纳入了中国多只机器人主题ETF，且投资者对其人形机器人投资持乐观态度。尽管如此，埃斯顿的盈利表现仍缺乏坚实支撑——其2025年目标净利润6000万元人民币与2015-2016年的平均净利润水平相当。因此，我们认为其估值过高。重申“卖出”评级。我们下调了盈利预测，但将目标价维持在15.5元人民币不变。</p></div>

<div><p>Estun announced 2Q25 results in the evening of Friday 28 August, and hosted an analyst call in the morning of Monday 1 September. This followed the preliminary result released on the evening of 14 July.</p>
<p>    We consider the 2Q25 results soft as the recurring net profit returned to negative and missed the lower-end of the profit alert range. For 2025, management has updated the guidance and now expects higher sales of RMB5.2bn but lower net profit of RMB60mn for the full year. Management commented positively on the growth momentum in 2H25 in China. In addition to achieving the no.1 position in the robot market in China, Estun is making good progress in tapping into European automotive customers and aims for RMB100mn sales from robots in Europe in 2026 — small but encouraging. Estun's share price has been resilient and was up by over 20% YTD, outperforming the CSI300 index, despite the soft results. We think this is because Estun is in many robot-themed ETFs in China and investors are optimistic about its humanoid robot investment. That said, Estun still lacks solid profit delivery underlyingly — its 2025 target net profit of RMB60mn is the same as the average net profit it achieved in 2015-16. We therefore consider the valuation as very full. Reiterate our Sell recommendation. We cut our estimates but keep target price unchanged at RMB15.5.</p></div>